Michael Ejercito
2018-06-13 11:07:31 UTC
The "Trump Doctrine" for the Middle East
by Guy Millière
June 13, 2018 at 5:00 am
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12506/trump-doctrine-middle-east
Trump has shown the strength of the United States and restored its
credibility in a region where strength and force determine credibility.
Trump more broadly laid the foundation for a new alliance of the United
States with the Sunni Arab world, but he put two conditions on it: a
cessation of all Sunni Arab support for Islamic terrorism and an openness to
the prospect of a regional peace that included Israel.
Secretary of State Pompeo spoke of the "Palestinians", not of the
Palestinian Authority, as in Iran, possibly to emphasize the distinction
between the people and their leadership, and that the leadership in both
situations, may no longer be part of the solution. Hamas, for the US, is
clearly not part of any solution.
Netanyahu rightly said that Palestinian leaders, whoever they may be, do not
want peace with Israel, but "peace without Israel". What instead could take
place would be peace without the Palestinian leaders. What could also take
place would be peace without the Iranian mullahs.
After three successive American Presidents had used a six-month waiver to
defer moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem for more than two decades,
President Donald J. Trump decided not to wait any longer. On December 7,
2017, he declared that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital
of Israel; the official embassy transfer took place on May 14th, the day of
Israel's 70th anniversary.
From the moment of Trump's declaration, leaders of the Muslim world
expressed anger and announced major trouble. An Islamic summit conference
was convened in Istanbul a week later, and ended with statements about a
"crime against Palestine". Western European leaders followed suit. Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel said that President Trump's decision was a "serious
mistake" and could have huge "consequences". French President Emmanuel
Macron, going further, declared that the decision could provoke a "war".
Despite these ominous predictions, trouble remained largely absent. The
Istanbul statement remained a statement. The "war" anticipated by Macron did
not break out.
The Islamic terrorist organization Hamas sent masses of rioters from Gaza to
tear down Israel's border fence and cross over, to force Israeli soldiers to
fire, thereby allowing Hamas to have bodies of "martyrs" to show to the
cameras. So far, Hamas has sent 62 of its own people to their death. Fifty
of them were, by Hamas's own admission, members of Hamas.
Palestinian terrorist groups fired rockets into southern Israel; Israeli
jets retaliated with airstrikes. Hamas sent kites, attached to incendiary
devices and explosives, over the border to Israel. So far, 200 of the
fire-kites that Hamas sent have destroyed 6,200 acres of Israeli forests and
farmland.
Pundits who predicted more violent reactions have been surprised by the
relatively quiet reaction of the Palestinian and Muslim communities. The
reason might be called the "Trump Doctrine for the Middle East".
One element of it consisted of crushing the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
President Trump had promised quickly to clear the world of what had become a
main backbone of Islamic terrorism. He kept his promise in less than a year,
and without a massive deployment of American troops. Trump has shown the
strength of the United States and restored its credibility in a region where
strength and force determine credibility.
Another element of it was put in place during President Trump's trip to
Saudi Arabia in May 2017. President Trump renewed ties which had seriously
deteriorated during the previous 8 years. Trump more broadly laid the
foundation for a new alliance of the United States with the Sunni Arab
world, but he put two conditions on it: a cessation of all Sunni Arab
support for Islamic terrorism and an openness to the prospect of a regional
peace that included Israel.
Both conditions are being gradually fulfilled. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia's
King Salman chose his son Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) as heir to the throne.
MBS started an internal revolution to impose new directions on the kingdom.
The Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition, created on December 15,
2015, was endorsed by the United States; it held its inaugural meeting on
November 26, 2017. In addition, links between Israeli and Saudi security
services were strengthened and coordination between the Israeli and Egyptian
militaries intensified.
An alliance between Israel and the main countries of the Sunni Arab world to
contain Iran also slowly and unofficially began taking shape. MBS, calling
called Hamas a terrorist organization, saying that it must "be destroyed".
He told representatives of Jewish organizations in New York that Palestinian
leaders need to "take the [American] proposals or shut up."
Pictured: President Donald Trump hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by
Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images)
Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas was summoned to Riyadh twice --
in November and December 2017; and it appears he was "asked" to keep quiet.
Never has the distance between Palestinian organizations, and Saudi Arabia
and the Sunni Arab world, seemed so far. The only Sunni Arab country to have
maintained ties with Hamas is Qatar, but the current Emir of Qatar, Sheikh
Tamim ben Hamad Al Thani, has been under pressure to change his stance.
Immediately after President Trump left Riyadh, a third element emerged. The
US presidential plane went directly from Riyadh to in Israel: for the first
time, a direct flight between Saudi Arabia and Israel took place. President
Trump went to Jerusalem, where he became the first sitting US President to
visit the Western Wall, the only historical remains of a retaining wall from
the ancient Temple of King Solomon. During his campaign, Trump had referred
to Jerusalem as "the eternal capital of the Jewish people", implicitly
acknowledging that the Jews have had their roots there for 3,000 years.
After his visit to the Wall, President Trump went to Bethlehem and told
Mahmoud Abbas what no American President had ever said: that Abbas is a liar
and that he is personally responsible for the incitement to violence and
terror. In the days that followed, the US Congress demanded that the
Palestinian Authority renounce incentivizing terrorism by paying cash to
imprisoned Palestinian terrorists and families of terrorists killed while
carrying out attacks. President Trump's Middle East negotiators, Jared
Kushner and Jason Greenblatt made it clear to Palestinian leaders that US
aid to the Palestinian Authority could end if the US demand was not met.
Nikki Haley told the United Nations that the US could stop funding UNWRA if
Palestinian leaders refused to negotiate and accept what the US is asking
for. Since it was founded in 1994, the Palestinian Authority has never been
subjected to such intense American pressure.
The fourth element was President Trump's decision to leave the Iran nuclear
deal. President Trump immediately announced he would restore "the harshest,
strongest, most stringent sanctions" to suffocate the mullahs' regime.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has since presented to Iran a list of 12
"basic requirements" for a new agreement.
President Trump's decision came in a context where the Iran regime has just
suffered a series of heavy blows: the Israeli Mossad's seizure in Tehran of
highly confidential documents showing that Iran has not ceased to lie about
its nuclear program; the revelation by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu of the Mossad operation, and the Israeli army's decisive response
to an Iranian rocket barrage launched from Syrian territory. By it, Israel
showed its determination not to allow Russia to support Iran when Iran uses
its bases to attack Israel.
Netanyahu was invited by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Moscow on May 9
to commemorate the Soviet victory over Germany in 1945; during that visit,
Putin seems to have promised Netanyahu neutrality if Israel were attacked by
Iranian forces in Syria. Putin, eager to preserve his Russian bases in
Syria, clearly views Israel as a force for stability in the Middle East and
Iran as a force for instability -- too big a risk for Russian support.
In recent months, the Iranian regime has become, along with Erdogan's
Turkey, one of the main financial supporters of the "Palestinian cause" and
Hamas's main backer. It seems that Iran asked Hamas to organize the marches
and riots along the Gaza-Israel border. When the violence from Gaza became
more intense, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was summoned to Cairo by Egypt's
intelligence chief, who told him that if violence does not stop, the Israel
military would carry out drastic actions, and Egypt would be silent. It
could become difficult for Iran to incite Palestinian organizations to
widespread violence in the near future.
It could become extremely difficult for Iran to continue financially to
support the "Palestinian cause" in the coming months. It could soon become
financially unbearable for Iran to maintain its presence in Syria and
provide sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah. Turkish President Erdogan speaks
loudly, but he seems to know what lines not to cross.
Protests in Iran have become less intense since January, but the discontent
and frustrations of the population persist and could get worse.
The Trump administration undoubtedly realizes that the Iranian regime will
not accept the requirements presented by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and
that the harsh new sanctions might lead to new major uprisings in Iran, and
the fall of the regime. Ambassador John Bolton, now National Security
Advisor, mentioned in January that the "strategic interest of the United
States" is to see the regime overthrown.
Referring recently to the situation in the Middle East and the need to
achieve peace, Pompeo spoke of the "Palestinians", not of the Palestinian
Authority, as in Iran, possibly to emphasize the distinction between the
people and their leadership, and that the leadership in both situations, may
no longer be part of the solution. Hamas, for the US, is clearly not part of
any solution.
No one knows exactly what the peace plan to be presented by the Trump
administration will contain, but it seems certain that it will not include
the "right of return" of so-called "Palestinian refugees" and will not
propose East Jerusalem as the "capital of a Palestinian state". The plan
will no doubt be rejected by both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas; it
already has been, sight unseen.
Netanyahu rightly said that Palestinian leaders, whoever they may be, do not
want peace with Israel, but "peace without Israel". What instead could take
place would be peace without the Palestinian leaders. What could also take
place would be peace without the Iran's mullahs.
It should be noted that on December 7, 2017, when Donald Trump announced the
transfer of the United States Embassy to Jerusalem, the leaders of the
Muslim world who protested were mostly Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Iran's Hassan Rouhani. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab
Emirates and Oman did not send representatives to the Islamic summit
conference in Istanbul. When the US embassy in Jerusalem opened its doors on
May 14, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf emirates were quiet.
On that day, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron repeated what they had said
on December 7, 2017: that the embassies of Germany and France in Israel
would remain in Tel Aviv. Macron condemned the "heinous acts" committed by
the Israeli military on the Gaza border but not aggression of Hamas in
urging its people, and even paying them, to storm Gaza's border with Israel.
If current trends continue, Macron and Merkel could be among the last
supporters of the "Palestinian cause." They sound as if they will do just
about anything to save the corrupt Palestinian Authority.
They are also doing everything to save the moribund Iran "nuclear deal," and
are deferential to the mullahs' regime. During a European summit held in
Sofia, Bulgaria, on May 16, the Trump administration was harshly criticized
by the European heads of state who argued that Europe will "find a way
around" US sanctions and "resist" President Trump. European companies are
already leaving Iran in droves, evidently convinced that they will be better
off cutting their losses and keeping good relations with the United States.
On June 3-5, Benjamin Netanyahu went to Europe to try to persuade Merkel,
Macron and British Prime Minister Theresa May to give up backing the Iran
nuclear deal. He failed, predictably, but at least had the opportunity to
explain the Iranian danger to Europeans and the need to act.
As Iran's nuclear ties to North Korea have intensified in the last two
years -- Iran seems to have relied on North Korea to advance its own nuclear
projects -- the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula that might have
begun with the Donald Trump-Kim Jong-Un meeting in Singapore on June 12,
clearly will not strengthen the Iranian position.
European leaders seem not to want to see that a page is turning in the
Middle East. They seem not to want to see that, regardless of their
mercenary immorality, of their behavior staying on the page of yesterday, is
only preventing them from understanding the future.
Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of
27 books on France and Europe.
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by Guy Millière
June 13, 2018 at 5:00 am
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12506/trump-doctrine-middle-east
Trump has shown the strength of the United States and restored its
credibility in a region where strength and force determine credibility.
Trump more broadly laid the foundation for a new alliance of the United
States with the Sunni Arab world, but he put two conditions on it: a
cessation of all Sunni Arab support for Islamic terrorism and an openness to
the prospect of a regional peace that included Israel.
Secretary of State Pompeo spoke of the "Palestinians", not of the
Palestinian Authority, as in Iran, possibly to emphasize the distinction
between the people and their leadership, and that the leadership in both
situations, may no longer be part of the solution. Hamas, for the US, is
clearly not part of any solution.
Netanyahu rightly said that Palestinian leaders, whoever they may be, do not
want peace with Israel, but "peace without Israel". What instead could take
place would be peace without the Palestinian leaders. What could also take
place would be peace without the Iranian mullahs.
After three successive American Presidents had used a six-month waiver to
defer moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem for more than two decades,
President Donald J. Trump decided not to wait any longer. On December 7,
2017, he declared that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital
of Israel; the official embassy transfer took place on May 14th, the day of
Israel's 70th anniversary.
From the moment of Trump's declaration, leaders of the Muslim world
expressed anger and announced major trouble. An Islamic summit conference
was convened in Istanbul a week later, and ended with statements about a
"crime against Palestine". Western European leaders followed suit. Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel said that President Trump's decision was a "serious
mistake" and could have huge "consequences". French President Emmanuel
Macron, going further, declared that the decision could provoke a "war".
Despite these ominous predictions, trouble remained largely absent. The
Istanbul statement remained a statement. The "war" anticipated by Macron did
not break out.
The Islamic terrorist organization Hamas sent masses of rioters from Gaza to
tear down Israel's border fence and cross over, to force Israeli soldiers to
fire, thereby allowing Hamas to have bodies of "martyrs" to show to the
cameras. So far, Hamas has sent 62 of its own people to their death. Fifty
of them were, by Hamas's own admission, members of Hamas.
Palestinian terrorist groups fired rockets into southern Israel; Israeli
jets retaliated with airstrikes. Hamas sent kites, attached to incendiary
devices and explosives, over the border to Israel. So far, 200 of the
fire-kites that Hamas sent have destroyed 6,200 acres of Israeli forests and
farmland.
Pundits who predicted more violent reactions have been surprised by the
relatively quiet reaction of the Palestinian and Muslim communities. The
reason might be called the "Trump Doctrine for the Middle East".
One element of it consisted of crushing the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
President Trump had promised quickly to clear the world of what had become a
main backbone of Islamic terrorism. He kept his promise in less than a year,
and without a massive deployment of American troops. Trump has shown the
strength of the United States and restored its credibility in a region where
strength and force determine credibility.
Another element of it was put in place during President Trump's trip to
Saudi Arabia in May 2017. President Trump renewed ties which had seriously
deteriorated during the previous 8 years. Trump more broadly laid the
foundation for a new alliance of the United States with the Sunni Arab
world, but he put two conditions on it: a cessation of all Sunni Arab
support for Islamic terrorism and an openness to the prospect of a regional
peace that included Israel.
Both conditions are being gradually fulfilled. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia's
King Salman chose his son Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) as heir to the throne.
MBS started an internal revolution to impose new directions on the kingdom.
The Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition, created on December 15,
2015, was endorsed by the United States; it held its inaugural meeting on
November 26, 2017. In addition, links between Israeli and Saudi security
services were strengthened and coordination between the Israeli and Egyptian
militaries intensified.
An alliance between Israel and the main countries of the Sunni Arab world to
contain Iran also slowly and unofficially began taking shape. MBS, calling
called Hamas a terrorist organization, saying that it must "be destroyed".
He told representatives of Jewish organizations in New York that Palestinian
leaders need to "take the [American] proposals or shut up."
Pictured: President Donald Trump hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by
Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images)
Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas was summoned to Riyadh twice --
in November and December 2017; and it appears he was "asked" to keep quiet.
Never has the distance between Palestinian organizations, and Saudi Arabia
and the Sunni Arab world, seemed so far. The only Sunni Arab country to have
maintained ties with Hamas is Qatar, but the current Emir of Qatar, Sheikh
Tamim ben Hamad Al Thani, has been under pressure to change his stance.
Immediately after President Trump left Riyadh, a third element emerged. The
US presidential plane went directly from Riyadh to in Israel: for the first
time, a direct flight between Saudi Arabia and Israel took place. President
Trump went to Jerusalem, where he became the first sitting US President to
visit the Western Wall, the only historical remains of a retaining wall from
the ancient Temple of King Solomon. During his campaign, Trump had referred
to Jerusalem as "the eternal capital of the Jewish people", implicitly
acknowledging that the Jews have had their roots there for 3,000 years.
After his visit to the Wall, President Trump went to Bethlehem and told
Mahmoud Abbas what no American President had ever said: that Abbas is a liar
and that he is personally responsible for the incitement to violence and
terror. In the days that followed, the US Congress demanded that the
Palestinian Authority renounce incentivizing terrorism by paying cash to
imprisoned Palestinian terrorists and families of terrorists killed while
carrying out attacks. President Trump's Middle East negotiators, Jared
Kushner and Jason Greenblatt made it clear to Palestinian leaders that US
aid to the Palestinian Authority could end if the US demand was not met.
Nikki Haley told the United Nations that the US could stop funding UNWRA if
Palestinian leaders refused to negotiate and accept what the US is asking
for. Since it was founded in 1994, the Palestinian Authority has never been
subjected to such intense American pressure.
The fourth element was President Trump's decision to leave the Iran nuclear
deal. President Trump immediately announced he would restore "the harshest,
strongest, most stringent sanctions" to suffocate the mullahs' regime.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has since presented to Iran a list of 12
"basic requirements" for a new agreement.
President Trump's decision came in a context where the Iran regime has just
suffered a series of heavy blows: the Israeli Mossad's seizure in Tehran of
highly confidential documents showing that Iran has not ceased to lie about
its nuclear program; the revelation by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu of the Mossad operation, and the Israeli army's decisive response
to an Iranian rocket barrage launched from Syrian territory. By it, Israel
showed its determination not to allow Russia to support Iran when Iran uses
its bases to attack Israel.
Netanyahu was invited by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Moscow on May 9
to commemorate the Soviet victory over Germany in 1945; during that visit,
Putin seems to have promised Netanyahu neutrality if Israel were attacked by
Iranian forces in Syria. Putin, eager to preserve his Russian bases in
Syria, clearly views Israel as a force for stability in the Middle East and
Iran as a force for instability -- too big a risk for Russian support.
In recent months, the Iranian regime has become, along with Erdogan's
Turkey, one of the main financial supporters of the "Palestinian cause" and
Hamas's main backer. It seems that Iran asked Hamas to organize the marches
and riots along the Gaza-Israel border. When the violence from Gaza became
more intense, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was summoned to Cairo by Egypt's
intelligence chief, who told him that if violence does not stop, the Israel
military would carry out drastic actions, and Egypt would be silent. It
could become difficult for Iran to incite Palestinian organizations to
widespread violence in the near future.
It could become extremely difficult for Iran to continue financially to
support the "Palestinian cause" in the coming months. It could soon become
financially unbearable for Iran to maintain its presence in Syria and
provide sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah. Turkish President Erdogan speaks
loudly, but he seems to know what lines not to cross.
Protests in Iran have become less intense since January, but the discontent
and frustrations of the population persist and could get worse.
The Trump administration undoubtedly realizes that the Iranian regime will
not accept the requirements presented by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and
that the harsh new sanctions might lead to new major uprisings in Iran, and
the fall of the regime. Ambassador John Bolton, now National Security
Advisor, mentioned in January that the "strategic interest of the United
States" is to see the regime overthrown.
Referring recently to the situation in the Middle East and the need to
achieve peace, Pompeo spoke of the "Palestinians", not of the Palestinian
Authority, as in Iran, possibly to emphasize the distinction between the
people and their leadership, and that the leadership in both situations, may
no longer be part of the solution. Hamas, for the US, is clearly not part of
any solution.
No one knows exactly what the peace plan to be presented by the Trump
administration will contain, but it seems certain that it will not include
the "right of return" of so-called "Palestinian refugees" and will not
propose East Jerusalem as the "capital of a Palestinian state". The plan
will no doubt be rejected by both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas; it
already has been, sight unseen.
Netanyahu rightly said that Palestinian leaders, whoever they may be, do not
want peace with Israel, but "peace without Israel". What instead could take
place would be peace without the Palestinian leaders. What could also take
place would be peace without the Iran's mullahs.
It should be noted that on December 7, 2017, when Donald Trump announced the
transfer of the United States Embassy to Jerusalem, the leaders of the
Muslim world who protested were mostly Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Iran's Hassan Rouhani. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab
Emirates and Oman did not send representatives to the Islamic summit
conference in Istanbul. When the US embassy in Jerusalem opened its doors on
May 14, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf emirates were quiet.
On that day, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron repeated what they had said
on December 7, 2017: that the embassies of Germany and France in Israel
would remain in Tel Aviv. Macron condemned the "heinous acts" committed by
the Israeli military on the Gaza border but not aggression of Hamas in
urging its people, and even paying them, to storm Gaza's border with Israel.
If current trends continue, Macron and Merkel could be among the last
supporters of the "Palestinian cause." They sound as if they will do just
about anything to save the corrupt Palestinian Authority.
They are also doing everything to save the moribund Iran "nuclear deal," and
are deferential to the mullahs' regime. During a European summit held in
Sofia, Bulgaria, on May 16, the Trump administration was harshly criticized
by the European heads of state who argued that Europe will "find a way
around" US sanctions and "resist" President Trump. European companies are
already leaving Iran in droves, evidently convinced that they will be better
off cutting their losses and keeping good relations with the United States.
On June 3-5, Benjamin Netanyahu went to Europe to try to persuade Merkel,
Macron and British Prime Minister Theresa May to give up backing the Iran
nuclear deal. He failed, predictably, but at least had the opportunity to
explain the Iranian danger to Europeans and the need to act.
As Iran's nuclear ties to North Korea have intensified in the last two
years -- Iran seems to have relied on North Korea to advance its own nuclear
projects -- the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula that might have
begun with the Donald Trump-Kim Jong-Un meeting in Singapore on June 12,
clearly will not strengthen the Iranian position.
European leaders seem not to want to see that a page is turning in the
Middle East. They seem not to want to see that, regardless of their
mercenary immorality, of their behavior staying on the page of yesterday, is
only preventing them from understanding the future.
Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of
27 books on France and Europe.
---
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